MARKET TEMPERATURE |
FEAR & GREED
64
Greed · was 71 last wk |
VIX
14.2
+5.9%
|
10-YEAR YIELD
4.31%
+2.1%
|
FED ODDS
58%
Fed rate cut in September? · Polymarket
|
THE TAPE — DAY MOVES | S&P 500 |
|
+0.30% | | Nasdaq 100 |
|
+0.50% | | Dow |
|
-0.10% | | Russell 2000 |
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+0.90% | | BTC |
|
+1.20% |
BTC $118,400 · dominance 54.8% · funding BTC +0.011%/8h · funding ETH +0.014%/8h EVENTS THAT CAN MOVE YOUR BOOK | Tue 7/14 | JPM HELD pre-market · EPS est 4.88 | | Tue 7/14 | WFC HELD pre-market · EPS est 1.41 | | Wed 7/15 | GS HELD pre-market · EPS est 9.62 | | Wed 7/15 | BAC HELD pre-market · EPS est 0.89 | | Wed 7/15 | CPI (MoM) — the week's macro high point · US | | Thu 7/16 | Retail sales · US | | Thu 7/16 | Initial jobless claims · US | | Fri 7/17 | NFLX after close · EPS est 6.25 |
WHERE YOUR BOOK MEETS THE TAPE |
EARNINGS THIS WEEK — COMPANIES YOU OWN
4 · $203,000
JPM, WFC, GS, BAC report results — expect bigger-than-usual moves
|
OPTION BETS EXPIRING WITHIN A MONTH
$61,000
this week's big news lands before these expire — least time to recover
| |
AFTER-EARNINGS OPTION DEFLATION
-$3,100
options lose their pre-results suspense premium — even if the stock sits still
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CUSHION BEFORE A FORCED CLOSE
22.0%
your BTC short survives a 22% move against it ≈ 2.4 normal days — comfortable
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HEADLINES ON YOUR NAMES JPM Dimon flags loan-growth cooling ahead of Q2 print · Reuters TSLA Robotaxi expansion to three new metros approved · Bloomberg NVDA Export-license backlog clearing faster than expected · FT DESK VERDICT Positioned long into a heavy macro week: four of your financials report Tuesday-Wednesday around a CPI print, and with September cut odds at 58% the book's biggest sensitivity is IV crush on those names, not direction. A hot CPI that drags the 10-year higher presses the TSLA LEAPs — $657k of delta in one name. |
PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW DAY MOVE · +0.77% Net worth $2,412,902, up $18,433 on the day — one conviction expressed twice: a $1.11M long-delta tech options bet beside a 13.4x-levered, 100%-long perp sleeve. ALLOCATION ALLOCATION BY ASSET CLASS |
Equities 35% $839,517 | |
Tokenized stocks 14% $343,266 | |
Options 13% $323,763 | |
Cash 5% $124,570 | |
Perps 31% $755,024 | |
Predictions 1% $24,124 |
Two sleeves — equities-plus-options and perps — are 93% of the book, and both are long. OPTIONS BOOK GROSS Δ$ BY EXPIRY |
8–30d 5% $61,000 | |
31–90d 1% $14,819 | |
90d+ 94% $1,097,547 |
NET Δ$ BY UNDERLYING | TSLA |
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$657,361 | | AMD |
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$112,720 | | NVDA |
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$70,037 | | GOOG |
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$64,641 | | MRVL |
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$47,454 | | AVGO |
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$41,835 | | PLTR |
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$38,037 | | AMZN |
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$28,953 |
97% net-to-gross delta: the short puts finance the calls, they don't hedge them. TSLA alone is 59% of options delta, and 96% of the book sits beyond 90 days — a LEAP conviction stack with no expiry cliff. Three short legs are in the money: set the roll-or-take plan before December. OPTIONS ANALYTICS COMBOS — P/L BY STRUCTURE | Risk Reversal AMD |
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$71,248 | | Synthetic Long TSL |
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$34,857 | | Risk Reversal MRVL |
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$30,517 | | Synthetic Long TSL |
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$19,498 | | Call vertical TSLA |
|
-$4,540 |
STRESS — -10% SPOT, +10 IV PTS, 5 DAYS Theta is just -$189/day — the wings fund the decay. The stress tape costs $104k, survivable alone; the danger is the same candle pressing the perp sleeve. WHEEL & INCOME WHEEL — LIFETIME EARNINGS BY SYMBOL · ROI 16.5% |
TSLA 48% $29,974 | |
TSLA #2 22% $14,076 | |
GOOG 12% $7,372 | |
AVGO 11% $6,860 | |
MRVL 8% $4,814 |
16.5% lifetime ROI on $382,000 committed — the run-rate earns its collateral; the healthiest sleeve in the book. PERPS BOOK PERPS — NET EXPOSURE BY CLUSTER | ETH |
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$7,205,000 | | Privacy |
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$2,889,425 |
13.4x leverage, 100% long, and ETH is 71% of a $10.1M gross — that isn't concentration, it's a single position. FUNDING & LIQUIDATION FUNDING DRAG VS PRICE P&L | price P&L |
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$191,473 | | funding |
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-$5,094 |
Funding drag is under 3% of price P&L — the trend pays for itself. The nearest liquidation sits 22% away, a 2.4-sigma daily move: comfortable, and worth keeping that way. WATCH LIST 1. Bank prints Tue-Wed on $203k of held financials — IV crush follows each one. 2. CPI Wednesday 08:30 ET with $61k of delta inside the 8-30d bucket. 3. Three short option legs ITM — decide roll vs take now, not at expiry week. 4. TSLA is 59% of options delta — one multiple compression moves $657k. 5. September cut odds 58% — below 50% on a hot print drags growth multiples. Not financial advice. |